Donald Trump’s Chances of Outperforming Kamala Harris Skyrocket on Polymarket, Triggering Manipulation Concerns
Updated: October 18, 2024 12:39 EDT
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Julia Smith
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Updated: October 18, 2024 12:39 EDT
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Donald Trump’s prospects of defeating Kamala Harris have experienced a significant surge on Polymarket this week, sparking concerns about potential manipulation of the market just weeks before the U.S. presidential election.
As the Republican nominee, Trump currently holds a commanding lead over the vice president on the decentralized prediction platform, leading to discussions about the credibility of these betting markets.
Donald Trump’s Dubious Advantage Over Kamala Harris on Polymarket
According to Polymarket’s official “Presidential Election Winner 2024” poll, bettors favor Trump over Harris with a margin of 62.1 percent to 37.9 percent.
This substantial shift in odds has raised suspicion as it coincides with a major bet from a single user.
An individual known as Fredi9999 reportedly placed an enormous wager of $20 million on Trump, which has skewed the market and raised doubts about the reliability of Polymarket’s odds.
In contrast, national polls present a much closer race, with Harris leading Trump by 48.5 percent to 46.2 percent, respectively.
The controversy surrounding political prediction markets has intensified as Election Day draws near.
Billionaire and former CEO of X, Elon Musk, recently claimed, albeit inaccurately, that such platforms are “more accurate than polls” due to the involvement of “actual money.”
However, critics argue that large sums of money can distort the results.
Several U.S. lawmakers have expressed their opposition to political betting platforms.
In an August 2024 letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Senators Elizabeth Warren, Richard Blumenthal, Jeff Merkley, and others voiced concerns that substantial bets could influence the election’s outcome.
“Election gambling fundamentally undermines the integrity of our democratic process,” they wrote. “Political bets alter the motivations behind each vote, replacing political convictions with financial calculations,” they added.
Can Donald Trump’s Polymarket Odds Be Manipulated Before Election Day?
Just last month, prediction market Kalshi won a highly-publicized court battle that allowed it to trade political event contracts. However, a federal appeals court has expedited a legal review of that decision.
According to Morning Brew, Kalshi has generated over $12 million in bets related to Harris and Trump.
On Kalshi’s platform, Trump has a 57 percent lead over Harris at 43 percent. However, experts caution that these numbers may not accurately reflect reality.
Brandon Carl, Head of AI and Strategy at Smarsh Inc., warned that these betting markets can drive “herd behavior” as people tend to follow perceived winners rather than actual odds.
“The significant danger is that people assume betting markets reflect reality,” Carl said. “But betting markets are still markets, which means they are susceptible to manipulation. The incentives definitely exist.”
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, questions about the legitimacy of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi remain unresolved, leaving many wondering how much influence significant bets will have on the final outcome.
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