Matthew Sigel, the head of digital assets research at VanEck, has predicted a bullish setup for Bitcoin as the U.S. election approaches. According to Sigel, Bitcoin’s recent surge is tied to political changes and global economic worries. In an interview with CNBC, he pointed to factors such as the upcoming U.S. election, shifts in money supply, and international developments in Bitcoin mining as influencing recent price trends.
Sigel explained that Bitcoin has historically reacted to shifts in political sentiment, particularly when candidates who are seen as favorable toward digital assets gain ground in the polls. He noted that recent price movements have aligned with rising betting odds for Donald Trump, whom he referred to as the pro-crypto candidate. Sigel predicts a bullish setup for Bitcoin into the election, similar to the pattern observed in 2020, where Bitcoin lagged with low volatility and then experienced a high-volatility rally after a winner was announced.
In addition, Sigel highlighted the significance of Bitcoin’s long-term negative correlation with the U.S. dollar, stating that periods of dollar weakening often coincide with Bitcoin price increases as investors seek alternative stores of value. He also mentioned the correlation between Bitcoin and money supply growth, particularly M2, which tracks the supply of cash and readily available funds. Recent Federal Reserve policy adjustments have led to a re-acceleration in the money supply, contributing to renewed interest in Bitcoin.
Sigel also discussed the influence of global developments on Bitcoin’s adoption, noting that some emerging markets, particularly among BRICS nations, are integrating Bitcoin mining operations supported by government resources. Looking ahead, Sigel remarked that global debt concerns could further drive interest in Bitcoin. He suggested that if major economies face credit downgrades, particularly the U.S., this could act as a catalyst for increased investment in Bitcoin as an alternative asset.
