Polymarket Achieves $100 Million Monthly Trading Volume Amidst Rising Speculation on US Election Outcomes
By Ruholamin Haqshanas
Last updated:
July 1, 2024, 01:48 EDT
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2 min read
Polymarket, a decentralized predictions platform, surged past $100 million in monthly trading volume in June, fueled by mounting anticipation surrounding the forthcoming United States presidential election.
The market dedicated to “Presidential Election Winner 2024” alone boasts an impressive $203.3 million in bets across 17 distinct prediction markets. Currently, former President Donald Trump leads as the favorite, commanding a 62% chance of victory, with a cumulative $24.7 million wagered both for and against his potential win. Following closely behind is incumbent President Joe Biden, with $23.9 million in bets supporting his bid for a second term. Biden’s odds, however, dipped from 34% to 21% following a lackluster performance in the recent June 28 Presidential Debate.
Recent debate dynamics sparked new betting trends, such as markets speculating on “Biden drops out of presidential race” (43%) and “Biden drops out by July 4” (9%), collectively amassing over $10 million in wagers.
Additionally, there’s notable activity in markets pondering the electoral prospects of figures like American rapper Kanye West and crypto skeptic Elizabeth Warren, though these markets currently indicate less than a 1% likelihood of success.
Operating on the Ethereum sidechain Polygon, Polymarket achieved a momentous trading volume of $109.9 million in June, marking its first breach of the $100 million threshold, according to data from Dune Analytics. This signifies a remarkable 620% growth compared to the preceding five months (August-December 2023), where monthly volumes ranged from $38.9 million to $63 million.
Moreover, Polymarket experienced a substantial 115% surge in monthly active traders, reaching 29,266 in June. Concurrently, the platform’s total value locked surged by nearly 69% over the past 30 days, totaling $40.2 million, as reported by Token Terminal data.
Polymarket’s trading fervor extends beyond political betting to encompass sizable transactions in markets related to the UEFA European Football Championship 2024.
Established in June 2020, Polymarket recently secured $70 million in funding and counts Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and venture capital firm Founders Fund among its supporters.
“Precise and truth-revealing prediction markets represent the purest form of technological liberal democracy,” remarked Yuga Cohler, an engineering lead at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, highlighting their role in countering centralized information control.
In a recent survey by the Harris Poll, one-third of US voters indicated considering a candidate’s stance on cryptocurrencies before casting their votes. Similarly, a Paradigm survey revealed strong crypto community support for Trump’s 2024 presidential bid, with 48% of crypto owners planning to vote for him, compared to 39% for Biden.
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